USD Forex-Archive

Daily Economic News - Feb 29, 2008

On the basis of the last consecutive three trading days we can strongly confirm that the U.S. economic condition has definitely become less favorable and it is about to face a severe dollar crisis. During those last three days, the dollar dropped several times to new records low versus the 15-nation currency. The EUR touched $1.5150 in early European trading -- up from $1.5120 in New York the previous night and above a record $1.5143 reached earlier Wednesday. The EUR gave up a little ground and was trading at $1.5122, still above Wednesday's close. An additional element which assisted the greenback was the unchanged level of GDP, which was published yesterday. The Gross Domestic Product rose at a 0.6 percent annualized rate, unchanged from the initial estimate last month. Not only the economic growth slowed and does not imply any signals of improvement for the short tem, but also U.S. citizens continue to deal with intense inflation increase which is above the Fed's comfort zone - a warning mix that predict further trouble for the U.S. economy. The main fear now is that the U.S economy may be heading towards a situation of “stagflation”, which means slowing growth and rising inflation. If stagflation occurs then it will take the U.S economy far longer to repair itself. In addition to rising inflation and unchanged growth, the U.S. government reported yesterday that jobless claims rose by 19,000, to 373,000, which was worse than anticipated providing more evidence that the general economic sluggishness is spilling over into the job market. As it seems for the moment we strongly believe that a notable shift in the Fed's sentiment is required in order to see any real recovery, which the U.S. economy desperately needs.

Daily Economic News - Feb 28, 2008

Yesterday, the USD fell to a record low vs. the EUR on expectations that the Fed will cut Interest Rates aggressively, despite stubborn inflation. Momentum in the EUR/USD pushed the pair through the closely watched 1.50 level and quickly surpassed 1.51 in the same session. The U.S. currency traded at the 1.5108 level vs. the EUR at 12:45 p.m. in Tokyo, after earlier touching the 1.5144 level. The greenback retreated after Bernanke said that the Fed will act in a timely manner to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks. The Fed has lowered benchmark overnight interest rates to 3% from 5.25% since September and financial markets expect policy makers to lower them by a further 0.5 percentage point at their next meeting on March 18. Meanwhile, the bad news out of the U.S. continued to mount. Data out yesterday revealed that Durable Goods Orders fell 5.3% in January, the most in 5 months, compared with the 4% forecast. The report added fears of a U.S. economic slowdown at a time when rising Oil prices are pushing prices higher, leaving the Fed with the dilemma of whether growth or inflation is potentially the bigger problem. Looking ahead to today's U.S. calendar, the Preliminary GDP results will be released at 13:30 GMT, along with Unemployment Claims data for the month of January. Volatility will likely continue across domestic financial markets as today's fundamental data holds potential to drive sharp moves in the U.S. currency. The USD will probably trade around its record lows against the EUR during the day and may even record new lows as the week progresses. Look for new lows and technical trends as opportunities for profits.

Daily Economic News - Feb 27, 2008

The greenback continued to fall sharply yesterday on the back of more negative U.S economic data which further fuelled speculation of an aggressive Fed rate cut in March. The greenback fell to a new all time low against the EUR after U.S Consumer Confidence released well below expectations at 75.0 for the month of February, which is a 17 year low for this figure. There was some positive U.S data released yesterday as the PPI figure surprised on the upside, releasing at 1.0% which was well above the forecasted figure of 0.4%. However this positive data was negated by comments from Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn saying that risks to U.S. economic growth are of greater concern to the central bank than inflation. The greenback is likely to remain firmly rooted in grizzly bear territory in the near term as given the risks to the U.S economy the Fed will be forced to keep cutting rates and ignore rising inflation. Another key factor that drove the greenback to an all time low against the EUR yesterday was the fact that positive Euro-zone data is continuing to make a rate cut by the ECB highly unlikely, while a Fed rate cut is now almost certain. Looking ahead, it does not seem as though the greenback will receive any reprieve today as we expect the Durable Goods and New Home Sales figures. These figures are forecasted to come in lower than last month and with the U.S economy in tatters there is a high likelihood that these figures will disappoint beyond market expectations. Also Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak before the House Financial Services Committee and he is likely to reiterate Vice Chairman Kohn's comments that U.S growth is of prime concern to the Fed. However many analysts are now of the opinion that since the greenback has crossed the key 1.5000 level against the EUR, it could consolidate before once again being pulled back by the bears. So traders can expect the bears to remain firmly on top in the near term and the greenback will only manage a sustained recovery once all the Fed rate cuts are firmly behind us and there is a steady stream of positive U.S economic data.

Daily Economic News - Feb 26, 2008

The strong selling of USD was boosted yesterday after hopes that a possible rescue plan for 'Ambac Financial Group', the second largest U.S. bond insurer, would help limit the damage from the ongoing credit crisis. Also yesterday, the US Existing Home Sales for January fell to the lowest level in 9 years while prices slid for the 7th consecutive month, posing a threat to consumer spending; the largest part of the enormous US economy. By the end of the day, the USD remained range bound vs. the EUR, while appreciating the most against its' high-yielding counterparts, most notably the JPY. Economic data from the US now shows the effects of the worst housing recession in 25 years have spread into other areas of the economy. The Fed Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index fell this month to -24, the weakest reading in 7 years. With other major sectors such as Employment, the financial markets and business investment; the Fed now has more than just the housing market to contend with when making its monetary policy decision. Currently, the market is pricing at a 65% chance that the Fed will lower its Interest Rate by another 0.25%. Today, traders may expect to see an overall increase in volatility as the US economic calendar filled with eventful releases like the PPI, National Home Price Index as well as the Consumer Confidence data, later in the afternoon. We expect the USD to rally on the back of stronger inflation numbers but weaker consumer confidence could cap the currency's rise.

Daily Economic News - Feb 25, 2008

The last few weeks have been characterized by Dollar negativity and even despite small gains last week look forward for future downwards pressure on the USD. A major concern has become the severity of the problems in the US economy and how the Fed can solve such issues to bring some stability to the failing dollar. Last week's data from virtually every economic sector in the US reflected the growing instability in what once was the benchmark of global economies. The Fed's main intervention has been its monumental cuts in US interest rates, as they have been sliced 225bp over the last 7 months. Today's Existing Home Sales index should give us a good measure of how well it has worked. With lower interest rates, the housing market should expect to see a boost; however expectations have the index down 1.8% to 4.8M. Some felt the rate cuts would spur on new buyers in the market, specifically low income buyers who wouldn't necessarily be looking as hard if it weren't for the combination of low prices and low interest rates. With the dollar already at dangerously low levels versus the major currencies to start the week, any more negative data will likely drive the dollar to record lows versus the EUR and a handful of others. Remarkably, the greenback has pulled itself out of such holes in the recent past, climbing from record setting lows to the EUR to storm back under 1.45. With the week set to see forecasted drops in Durable goods, GDP, Chicago PMI, personal income and spending as well as what will likely be negative comments from several Fed Governors, the dollar looks set to make a slight bearish push before Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's Wednesday remarks. Generally Bernanke does enough to reassure dollar investors to push the legendary currency back up to more respectable levels, regardless of the overall negative outlook on today's US economy. Look for a falling dollar before pressure from Commodities prices drives the greenback up before weeks end.

Daily Economic News - Feb 21, 2008

The USD fell yesterday to 2 week lows against the EUR as news of a slump in manufacturing in the U.S. region fanned recession fears. Yesterday's Philadelphia Fed report unexpectedly dropped to a 6 year low of -24.0 from -20.9, reflecting that the impact of the credit crunch is spilling over to the manufacturing sector, triggering market participants to look for another aggressive rate cut by the Fed. Many market players expect the Fed to slash overnight rates by another 50 basis points at its next meeting in March to 2.50 %, following an unusually aggressive 125 basis points of cuts in January to help fend off a recession Interest Rate futures markets have almost fully priced in another 0.5 percentage point Interest Rate reduction at the Fed's March policy meeting, up from an 82% chance seen before the sharp fall in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's business index. Recently, the Fed stressed that it was worried the U.S. economy would face further setbacks even after a series of aggressive rate cuts and sharply lowered its forecast for U.S. growth in 2008. Indeed, the increasing turmoil in the financial and housing sector continuing to add mounting pressures to the struggling economy raising concerns that the U.S. will ultimately face a recession. The labor market also lowered the outlook for the US as Continuing Claims increased to 2784K amid a minor decline in Initial Jobless Claims. The U.S. economic calendar posts no significant events today as the main focus regarding the USD will be the Dallas Fed President Fisher Speech. Dallas Federal Reserve President and FOMC voting member Richard Fisher will speak about the U.S. economy. Audience questions expected. FOMC voting members are responsible for setting the nation's short term interest rate, so traders scrutinize their speeches closely for clues regarding future monetary policy.

Daily Economic News - Feb 21, 2008

It was a very active trading day yesterday with market moving news coming from all 4 corners of the Forex market. The USD was firm ahead of the New York open but reversed all of its gains by the end of the U.S. session. Yesterday's U.S. Labor Department reported a 0.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index, while Core Inflation, which excludes food and energy, showed an increase of 0.3%. That was the biggest jump in this measure in 7 months. Both of the indicators printed slightly ahead of Wall Street expectations. Although consumer prices and housing numbers were stronger than expected, the greenback's rally quickly evaporated as traders realized that it was not enough for the Fed to reconsider their intentions of lowering interest rates. This belief was also validated by yesterdays' FOMC minutes. At the meeting, the U.S. Central Bank reduced its growth forecasts while increasing forecasts for future inflation and unemployment. A separate report showed yesterday that Housing Starts in the U.S. are very near to their lowest level since 1991. The housing data has confirmed once again that the U.S. economy is still in a major slowdown and it is very far form recovery during the mid-term. January housing gained 0.8%, but only after plunging by a revised 14.8% in December. Housing starts rebounded but building permits fell another 3% to their lowest level in 16 years. Today, Leading Indicators, Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Survey are due for release. We expect the USD to continue to remain weak because consumer prices was the only release this week that had the potential to trigger a reversal but unfortunately the impact was minimal.

Daily Economic News - Feb 20, 2008

Yesterday's trading session was characterized by low volatility due to a lack of any significant economic news events. As a result, the greenback saw small losses as it range traded against its major currency rivals. In U.S. share markets, a more consistent trend of bearish behavior took place as the NASDAQ fell by -15.60 points (-0.67%) whilst the Dow Jones was also down by -10.99 pts (-0.09%). Crude oil floated close to $100 a barrel last night, rising by just under $5 a barrel which contributed to the dollar's mild reduction yesterday. The release of the NAHB homebuilder confidence index yesterday surprised the market by rising for the second straight month, though the figure is still below standards as it creeps towards lows seen last in the US recession of 1991. Looking ahead to today's basket of US economic events, the 13:30 GMT release of Core CPI is expected to show at 0.2%, equaling last month's result. Housing Starts figure, also to be released at 13:30 GMT are forecasted to return at $1.01 Million also on par with last month's number. Building Permits are expected to return with identical numbers to last month's 1.05 Million dollar figure. Wednesday's US calendar will be wrapped up by the 19:00 GMT release of the FOMC meeting minutes as volatile conditions can be expected. The FOMC meeting is generally a good source of information regarding future polices regarding the dollar and interest rates. The January 30 FOMC meeting called for a vote regarding a 50bp rate cut for the dollar. If the aforementioned figures meet their expectations, Forex traders may interpret it as a positive sign in a relatively gloomy period for the US economy. In other dollar related news, ten-year bond yields rose overnight to a one-month high of 3.90% on inflation fears; a strong reading could threaten technical resistance by around 4% and open the door for a sharp move toward higher long-term interest rates around the world. Usually when a sharp positive movement in bond yields is expressed, the market atmosphere can be characterized as uncertain as traders could begin to seek low risk investment alternatives.

Daily Economic News - Feb 19, 2008

U.S. traders were off yesterday celebrating Presidents Day and there was no news or economic data to drive the market. By the end of the trading session, the USD was up 0.4% against the EUR, mainly as a result of position unwinding. This week, inflation will be in focus as the U.S. consumers expect the rise in food and energy prices. Although the greenback edged higher yesterday, analysts estimate that the U.S. data releases may keep the pressure on the currency this week. Bernanke's remarks and recent economic data have left investors betting on another half percentage point cut at the central bank's March meeting. Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade indicate traders see 74% likelihood the Fed will lower its benchmark rate by 0.5 %point at the next FOMC meeting. The rest of the bets are on a 0.75 % point reduction. Today, the U.S economic calendar is relatively tame with only the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) data providing any meaningful guidance to traders. NAHB index is measuring the demand outlook of single-family home builders. Also, during the day, Minneapolis Fed President Stern is scheduled to speak about the U.S. economy at the Financial Planning Association of Minnesota. Traders scrutinize his speeches closely for clues regarding future monetary policy. Traders may expect little major action in the U.S. currency till tomorrow, when the CPI report, Housing Starts and FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released. Overall, we expect that bearish dollar sentiment will persist during the rest of the week.

Daily Economic News - Feb 18, 2008

The greenback slipped all across the board on Friday as a host of negative U.S data increased speculation of another Fed rate cut in March and was another strong indication that the U.S economy is heading towards a recession. The main driver of the dollar slide on Friday was the soft Consumer Sentiment figure which released at 69.6, well below the expected figure of 76.0. This was the lowest Consumer Sentiment figure in 16 years, indicating that U.S consumer spending is in a sharp decline and this once again sparked recession fears. The U.S currency gained some ground against the majors towards the beginning of last week but its positive momentum quickly reversed on the back of growing recession fears. There was more bad news for the greenback on Friday as the Empire State Business Conditions Index, which measures the general business conditions of manufacturers in New York State, released in negative territory signaling a sharp contraction in the level of general business activity. Also the U.S TIC Report, which measures the monthly difference in cross-border foreign and domestic purchases of long-term securities, came in well below expectations thus indicating that the demand for the greenback has declined drastically. All this negative data would now justify another rate cut by the Fed and as long as the U.S economic indicators continue to disappoint, the greenback will remain under pressure. Looking ahead to today, low liquidity is expected during the New York trading session as U.S banks will be closed in observance of President's Day. Therefore, the greenback should trade relatively flat, especially since there is also no major market moving news expected from Europe or Asia. The next key U.S data release will be the NAHB Homebuilders Survey on Tuesday, which should give forex investors an indication as to how the struggling housing market is reacting to the string of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed. The short term outlook for the greenback remains grim as investors are now betting on a 0.5% rate cut at the next FOMC meeting.

Daily Economic News - Feb 15, 2008

The U.S. Labor Department published yesterday its weekly data concerning the number of the U.S. initial claims for state unemployment insurance aid. The data indicated a drop of 9,000 to 348,000 - slightly better than Wall Street's consensus expectation of 350,000. The December trade balance came in at a monthly deficit of $58.8B, lower than the expected $61B. The trade deficit totaled $711.6 billion for all of 2007, down 6.2 percent from the record set in 2006 and the largest annual percentage drop since 1991. As the subprime crisis continues to drag down the U.S. economy, a private report indicated yesterday that Sales of Existing Homes fell in 45 states during the October-December quarter, and Nationwide, Existing Homes sold at an annual rate of 4.96 million units in the 4th quarter, down 21% from the sales pace of the 4th quarter in 2006. In addition, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted yesterday that more rate cuts could be on the way in his statement in Washington. Bernanke mentioned that the outlook for the economy has worsened in recent months, indicating that the Fed would probably keep its insistent strategy in the short term. Although inflation remains a concern, Bernanke restate his certainty that prices would moderate this year. As a consequence of Bernanke's statement, The U.S. dollar dropped against 14 of the 16 most-active currencies and it headed for the biggest weekly loss since December against the 15- nation currency. Today to close out the week, the U.S. economic data will be released at 13:30 GMT as we await the figures from the Empire State Business Conditions Index and the Capacity Utilization. Later, the U.S. Industrial Product and Consumer Sentiment will also print there figures. Forex traders should keep an eye on the economic events around the world, as today could prove to be very volatile.

Daily Economic News - Feb 13, 2008

The greenback drifted lower against the EUR and the GBP yesterday ahead of today's much anticipated Retail Sales report, which is expected to disappoint and therefore increase speculation that the U.S economy is headed towards a recession. It is highly unlikely that the Retail Sales figure will surprise on the upside amidst a slowing U.S economy, so traders already began to short the dollar yesterday ahead of today's report. There were no significant economic indicators released from the U.S yesterday, however there was some major market moving news as billionaire investor Warren Buffet offered to take a $800 billion state in municipal bonds guaranteed by troubled MBIA Inc., Ambac Financial Group Inc and FGIC Corp. in his attempt to control approximately 33% of the debt insurance market. This news bolstered U.S stocks as there was speculation that this move would ease credit markets and help prevent a slump in the value of municipal debt. Therefore it was not all doom and gloom for the greenback as it did manage to rally sharply against the JPY on the back of this news, due to the resulting momentary resumption of risk appetite among global investors. On the other hand this willingness to take risks among investors due to some real positive market news was another major reason why the greenback depreciated against the Sterling and the EUR yesterday. Since the interest rate gap between the U.S and Europe has widened substantially in recent weeks and so it now makes the greenback susceptible to carry trades. Also the dollar gains against the JPY were cut short as investors concluded that the so called "Buffet Plan" was insufficient to relieve the grey cloud surrounding the U.S economy. Today, the only important data from the U.S will be the Retail Sales headline and core figures. Analysts expect a downside surprise amidst a slowing U.S economy and much of this speculation was already incorporated into yesterday's dollar slide. However, should Retail Sales drop far beyond expectations then this will throw the dollar back to the bears, any other outcome will result in a greenback consolidation after yesterday's sharp decline.

Daily Economic News - Feb 12, 2008

In spite of last week's disappointing US economic calendar, with most of its indicators printing much worse than expected, the greenback is behaving as if there were no fundamental data at all. Through the last week, the USD gained 300 points in a near vertical fashion as market sentiment changed completely from focusing on US economic woes to worrying about the slowdown in the rest of the world. The string of negative data from the US markets leaves little doubt that the Fed will probably continue to lower its interest rates, perhaps to 2% by the middle of this year. The U.S. economy has benefited substantially from increased trade and from the rapid growth of exports. Changes in terms of trade associated with recent exchange rate trends made American goods cheaper relative to those of some other countries. But the overall U.S. Economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2007 slowed to a 0.6% annualized pace, and U.S. employers cut jobs in January for the first time in four years, raising concern about a possible recession. Indeed, President George W. Bush's administration predicted U.S. economic growth will weaken in the first half of 2008 and accelerate later this year, buoyed by exports and tax rebates. Today, for the second consecutive day, there is no economic data expected to come out of the US markets. It's most likely that the greenback will perform solidly today against the majors. As for the rest of the week, the fundamental data could play a much more critical role as traders will get a look at Retail Sales, Trade Balance and TICS. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is scheduled to testify Feb. 14th on the condition of the economy and financial markets to the Senate Banking Committee.

Daily Economic News - Feb 11, 2008

The greenback began the week on a slight downward trend following some concerning news from the G7 over the weekend. After a meeting of the leading industrial nations in Tokyo, the G7, without specifically singling out a specific country voiced its growing concerns over the trembling global market. The US economy, while not being the sole catalyst has magnified the situation that much more, as the housing and credit crisis in America continues to press on. These issues coupled with the uncertainty of financial markets contributed to losses for the dollar against its major rivals as the new week began. The greenback was down nearly 25 pips in early Monday trading against the EUR at 1.4529 following a positive showing on Friday which saw the currency dip below the 1.45 EUR/USD support level ahead of the G7 meeting over the weekend. Similar results were seen against the Sterling, and while not nearly as significant, the move still concerns some dollar enthusiasts as most good performances by the dollar lately have not lasted very long. With another week of essential economic data on tap, many investors expect a bearish dollar trend to develop. The US is expected to release a batch of important economic data that will likely map the near future for the dollar. Retails Sales, Trade Balance, TIC Net Long-Term Transactions and Consumer Sentiment are only some of the more standout figures expected to affect trading throughout the currency market. Thursday, traders should expect a speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, which according to the results from the aforementioned data, could dictate the reaction by the Fed as it tries to ease pressure off the greenback. The dollar faces significant risk over the next week or so if it can't pose a big enough rally, as the EUR, Sterling and JPY will continue to eat away at gains made at the end of last week. Barring a standout result from economic data and consumer confidence from the US, the dollar could face another costly drop this week, especially with the ongoing rise of gold prices. Today's US calendar has no economic data scheduled for release.

Daily Economic News - Feb 7, 2008

The greenback has been appreciating sharply against the EUR since the release of the surprisingly weak U.S NFP report last Friday. Many analysts are still at odds as to why the greenback appreciated last Friday since the weak NFP report should have added to the existing bearish dollar sentiment. Also there was more significant negative data for the greenback this week as the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index released on Tuesday at 41.9 which indicated a sharp contraction in every major component of the report from new orders, to employment and to business activity. This negative data should have thrown the greenback to the bears as these disappointing key economic figures practically assure another Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March. This rate cut in March may once again be 0.50% as the Fed will make a last ditch attempt to pull the U.S economy out of a recession. Therefore this weeks' greenback rally against the EUR is somewhat of an economic phenomenon from the fundamental perspective. Also the greenback continued its rally against the EUR yesterday as traders remained cautious ahead of todays ECB Interest Rate Announcement. The main theory as to why the greenback is currently rallying against EUR on the back of this weeks' very negative U.S data, is that many analysts expect the U.S economy to rebound in the second half of 2008 while Euro-zone growth is believed to be heading for a freefall. Also the Fed is prepared to continue slashing rates in order to prevent the U.S economy from slipping into recession, while the ECB may stick to its hawkish stance with regards to its monetary policy today amid signs of slowing economic growth in the Euro-zone. So on a broader and longer term scale it seems that the when the U.S economy will be in reparation phase the Euro-zone economy may very well be falling into the dark pit of slowing growth and rising inflation. This is one of the main explanations for this weeks' greenback rally as at the end of a dark tunnel there is always light. Also the fact that the greenback is currently appreciating while there is very negative U.S data is another sure sign that this rally could be the beginning of a longer term trend. Yesterday there was no real market moving news from the U.S and traders will shift all their attention to today's interest rate announcements by the ECB and the BoE, therefore the greenback is likely remain relatively flat leading up to the announcements and the speech by President Trichet. However there could be sharp volatiliy on the back of these economic announcements. Traders should remain cautious as we could be at the beginning of a rallying greenback trend, which is not sufficiently justifiable at the moment.

Daily Economic News - Feb 6, 2008

It has been a long time since we have seen a broad based greenback rally, including against the JPY, where despite a widespread liquidation of carry trades, the USD/JPY barely budged. The USD rose yesterday despite a surprise drop in the ISM non-manufacturing index. Trading was volatile largely on the back of a significant contraction in ISM services figures which came in at 41.9, the lowest reading since Oct 2001. That intensifies concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, pressuring the Fed to cut rates further. Currently, the Fed Fund Futures are pricing a 70% chance of another 50bp cut next month. Along with this, it's important to mention that there are signs in the FOMC policy statement from last week according to which, the Fed may moderate its aggressive policy actions. Nevertheless, if the U.S. financial markets will destabilize once again, there is no doubt that Federal Reserve will cut again. The U.S. economy is in trouble and it seems as if the recession has hit. The continuing deterioration of the labor market, housing market and now the service sector, leaves little doubt that the biggest economy is falling into a recession. As for today's' U.S. calendar, expect Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs indices on tap. Both of these indicators are due to be released at 13:30 GMT. Later today, the Philadelphia Fed President Plosser is scheduled to deliver a speech. It appears that the greenback might continue yesterday's correction move before probably initiating another bearish move.

Daily Economic News - Feb 5, 2008

Yesterday, saw a return to mixed results by the greenback against its most commonly traded currency pairs, as the week continues to be driven by how world economies react to the unstable and disappointing US economy. Last Friday's release of the Non Farm payrolls could still have a lasting effect on dollar value, as the 17K job loss from January had initially ravaged the greenback, leaving some uncertainty as to if and for how long it will be a factor. A large portion of the focus for this week will not be on US economic data alone, but outside data which in large part will be reacting to last week's full schedule from the US. Interest rate statements will be announced this week in Australia, Europe and Great Britain, each of which are expected to react differently to the greenback's 125bp cut over the last 2 weeks by the Federal Reserve. Firstly, Australia is expected to raise their interest rate to 7%, a 25bp bump from its benchmark rate, as Australian economists expect to see record highs for the Aussie dollar against the USD, which could breach the 90 cent mark today. The British, on the other hand, seem to be leaning toward rate cuts to try and revive the British economy. As the week continues on, a small collection of important US economic data will be released. Pending Home Sales, Unemployment claims, Non-Farm Productivity are all set to individually push the greenback forward. On tap today is the release of ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for the month of January. The 15:00 GMT release is expected to fall slightly from 54.4 to 53.0 but should not cause as much volatility as usual, due to the small expected change. The manufacturing figure, coupled with 3 less significant figures to be released today, will likely keep the dollar trading within a small range.