EUR Forex Weekly Archive
Daily Economic News - Apr 16, 2008
The EUR dropped from an intraday high of 1.5875 after the ZEW Economic Sentiment showed investor confidence unexpectedly fell this month. The European currency also fell vs. the greenback on surprisingly strong U.S. inflation and manufacturing data. The EUR/USD last traded down 0.3% at 1.5802, following an overnight peak of 1.5875. The economic data from the Euro zone continues to suggest that the region is beginning to feel the impact of its relatively high exchange rates and slowing global growth. As the ZEW demonstrated, European consumer are becoming concerned about the inflation and impact of higher food and energy costs on European consumers. Today all attention will be focused on the Euro zone CPI inflation data. The market is expecting the figure to be left unrevised at 3.5%, the highest record level recorded since the launch of the EUR. However, if the indicator surprises with stronger then expected figures, it might further continue to support the EUR. Given market expectations for the ECB to maintain its focus on inflation and leave the Interest Rate policy unchanged - traders may expect the EUR bullish trend to continue during the near future. Overall, today's data may not make much of a dent and the EUR/USD could spend the rest of the day in a tense standoff between the bulls and the bears as traders search for the best opportunities to enter the market.
Daily Economic News - Apr 15, 2008
After the initial hit of Sunday's opening to the market, which saw such a drop in EUR/USD, the Euro recovered nicely throughout the late Asian/early European Trading session. This time it can be said, that positive Euro-Zone data as well as the still weary dollar investor contributed to such movement. Yesterday, saw the release of Industrial Production numbers from the Euro-Zone, which saw positive gains for yet another month. We also heard remarks from the hawkish President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Jean-Claude Trichet. Trichet continued to note the steady growth from the major EU economies as the 15-Nation currency continues to strengthen in the long term.
Today we can expect to see economic data released from both France and Germany. 9:30 GMT will see the release of French CPI figures, which are forecasted to return with 0.5% increases from last month. Also expected is ZEW Economic Sentiment indices from Germany as well as the whole of the Euro-Zone. Both figures will improve slightly but still show that there is some negative sentiment regarding the overall outlook of the Euro-Zone economy.
We should expect the EUR to remain consistent, as it could see small drops against the dollar, but should remain in bullish trends throughout most of the market.
Daily Economic News - Apr 14, 2008
The EUR spent most of last week gaining against most of its currency rivals, namely the dollar, as a combination of positive Euro-Zone figures and poor US data sent the 15-Nation currency to record highs versus the greenback as the pair hit 1.59 and above.
Amongst last weeks volatility in American and Asian markets, the Euro-Zone showed once again that though inflationary concerns loom, stability and growth are helping carve out a reputable name for the EUR. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet was steadfast with his hawkish stance on Euro-Zone monetary policy as yet another EU interest rate announcement passed by with no change. Last week the release of German wholesale numbers came back higher than expected, as it reaffirmed the one slight concern in the Euro-Zone which is inflation. As stated earlier, the G-7 meeting changed quite a lot as the EUR saw the greenback leap 150 pip to open Sunday's trading session, as other EUR crosses saw steady results. This week will be a news event dominated by the US as only significant European data will be the German Ifo Report. We should expect steady EUR growth, except for the famed EUR/USD which should continue to fall.
Daily Economic News - Apr 11, 2008
The EUR pared gains against the USD, falling from a record 1.5913 to 1.5791 before Trichet spoke at 5 p.m. in Frankfurt. The European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet signaled that he's still not ready to cut Interest Rates even as the credit squeeze poses a greater threat to economic growth than policy makers anticipated.
Trichet mentioned that the current level of the ECB Interest Rates will help control Euro zone inflation while tensions in the financial markets may last longer than initially expected. Until now, the ECB has avoided rate cuts even as concerns deepened that the fallout from the U.S. Sub prime crisis will spread to Europe. The ECB has kept its key benchmark rate unchanged at 4.00% since the credit crisis erupted and it has since then stressed that inflation remains its primary concern. In fact, the European Consumer Prices (index that measures inflation) rose 3.5% in March from a year earlier, the fastest pace in almost 16 years. The strong EUR dampens exports. Low exports contribute to a growth slowdown which places the ECB under pressure to lower rates. Nevertheless, the Central Bank remains optimistic. So far, economic indicators have not shown any clear signals of a significant slowdown. Today traders will be concentrated on the G7 Meeting. The G7 represents an important global policy making process at the highest level, and at times their policies can have an impact on the currency markets. The EUR is expected to remain resilient as traders are expected to exercise caution during the G7 the Group of Seven conference. A bullish movement against the greenback will probably resume after the weekend. From the 'long range' perspective, as long the Interest Rate differential between the U.S and Europe continues to widen, the EUR will remain the preferred currency amongst traders.
