EUR Forex Weekly Archive
Daily Economic News - May 21, 2008
Yesterday, the Euro recovered from losses it suffered on Monday against the Dollar, as the oft traded pair once again topped above 1.56. The EUR saw gains, amidst a mixed day of news events from the Euro-Zone. At the beginning of the trading day the EUR was helped by German PPI for April which grew 0.5% since last quarter. The rally however didn't last very long as the publishing of German ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to -41.4% from -40.7% due in large part to rising food prices and the prices of Crude Oil. After the release of the ZEW results for May the Euro fell from $1.5607 to 1.5563, but hawkish comments from the ZEW President Wolfgang Franz, that the European Central Bank (ECB) will increase interest rates in the coming months to combat inflation, helped revive bullish EUR trends as the EUR/USD jumped to 1.5652. Also contributing to the second bump in EUR were positive ZEW numbers for the whole of the Euro-Zone.
The ECB has kept with its hawkish monetary policy, even as it deals with rising inflationary scares. After yesterday's economic data, most notably PPI figures, and the ZEW Presidents comments, a EUR interest rate cut is unlikely to happen soon. On tap today from the Euro-Zone, we will see German IFO Business Conditions figures. These numbers could prove to be crucial in determining both the overall outlook of the Euro-Zone economy, as well as the direction of EUR pairs. As the biggest EZ economy, German numbers normally serve as a precursor to news from the whole of Europe. If the results are within expectations this will could likely trigger the Euro to continue its rally against the USD.
Daily Economic News - May 20, 2008
Yesterday, investors were witness of volatile trends for EUR pairs, leaving the 15- Nation's currency with mixed results for the trading session. Volatile behavior was observed particularly within the EUR\JPY and the EUR\GBP. The EUR\USD underwent a staunch bearish trend, falling 0.4% from late Friday, down to 1.5508. The strong volatility ripple that occurred in most EUR pairs came as a result of the shortage in EUR news since the beginning of the week. On the other hand, the falling trend vs. the USD took place mainly thanks to US economic data, which suggested that the U.S could be avoiding recession.
Coming up today, some crucial data is expected for the EUR. First will be the German Producer price index, which measures the rate of inflation, as analysts forecast this month's number to be lower than last months. Later on, the German and the European ZEW Economic Sentiment will be published. These surveys reflect the mood of investors regarding the economy. The German survey is forecasted to come back at -37.5, 3.2 points better than last month. The European survey is forecasted to come back at -44.2, 2.6 points better than last month, and the positive figures should create bullish inclination for the EUR.
Investors should take advantage of today's significant data which is scheduled for both the Euro zone and the U.S. The high volatility can benefit swift profits.
Daily Economic News - May 19, 2008
Amidst rising talks of inflation throughout the Euro-Zone, the EUR was able to make gains before the weekend, most notably against the greenback. The oft traded pair is less than a month removed from all-time highs of 1.6019, and though the pair saw significant losses in early may it is slowing recovering. The major pair spent some of May floating slightly over 1.52 on the back of renewed dollar confidence. However, the last 2 weeks of trading have rejuvenated the EUR as it climbed back before market closing just above 1.55.
The Euro-Zone economies have had to adjust to the lofty value of their currency, as it has put a strain on aspects revolving mostly around consumers. European Central Bank (ECB) officials have expressed some concern over inflation due to the budding EUR, though a sharp change from the regularly hawkish monetary policy is still unlikely. Last week, Euro-Zone data was mixed, as the 15-Nation currency floated tightly within most of its trading pairs. On Friday, data from the Euro-Zone was negative highlighted by a 4 billion swing in Trade Balance from 1.6B to -2.4B. These numbers elevated existing concerns of inflation within the region but didn't affect the actual trading session, largely due to poor US data. The EUR responded almost instantly to pour consumer numbers from the US, as it closed out the week in positive territory.
This week the EUR will be at the forefront of the economic calendar. With a wide range of economic sectors due to be covered, the week will be highlighted by German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German Ifo figures, Industrial New Orders, French Consumer Spending, German Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI. With the absence of data from US markets during the majority of the news week, the magnifying glass will be focused on the Euro-Zone data. Expectations show some negativity, but it is likely that the EUR can still pull off a bullish trading week, mainly against the USD.
